MANIFOLD
Will a weak measurement experiment explicitly reconstruct a complex trajectory for quantum tunneling by EOY 2030?
19%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a peer-reviewed experimental paper is published demonstrating explicit reconstruction of a complex quantum tunneling trajectory using weak measurement techniques.

Background

Weak measurement combined with post-selection has been proposed as a method to identify complex classical trajectories that tunneling particles follow. See, e.g., Nishimura, Sakai & Yosprakob (2023) “A new picture of quantum tunneling in the real-time path integral from Lefschetz thimble calculations” https://doi.org/10.1007/JHEP09(2023)110

Market context
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