Resolves YES if the average global prices of neodymium, dysprosium, and samarium magnets increase by more than 20% from their baseline prices as of December 1, 2025, by September 15, 2026. The baseline and subsequent prices will be verified using data from authoritative sources such as the US Geological Survey (USGS) and industry reports from Roskill and Adamas Intelligence. The new Chinese export restrictions, effective December 1, 2025, are expected to significantly impact global supply chains, potentially leading to price increases due to limited availability and increased geopolitical tensions. This threshold is critical as it reflects the anticipated market response to these restrictions, which could disrupt supply and elevate prices significantly.
Source: Article
1,000Chinese licensing controls on Dy/Sm-bearing magnets are now baked into the system, and feedstock plus refining chokepoints give Beijing ample leverage to keep export volumes tight and prices elevated; absent a major global recession or sharp policy reversal, another 20%+ move in Nd/Dy/Sm magnet prices by mid-September 2026 is the more probable outcome.
The implementation of strict export regulations by China on key rare earth elements, including samarium, is poised to significantly impact global magnet prices. The regulations will restrict foreign access to these materials, which are critical for both civilian and military applications, potentially driving prices up over 20%. This move could particularly affect manufacturers reliant on Chinese-origin materials for SmCo magnet production.