MANIFOLD
Will Donald Trump OR Marco Rubio visit Cuba before Trump’s presidency ends?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ135
2029
34%
chance
14

This market resolves YES if either:

  • Donald Trump

  • Marco Rubio

physically visits Cuban territory at any point before the end of Trump’s current presidential term.

Only one of them needs to visit for this market to resolve YES.

A qualifying visit includes:

  • Official state visits

  • Diplomatic or political trips

  • Government delegations

  • Any confirmed physical presence in Cuba

Explicit Exception — Guantánamo Bay

A visit only to the U.S. Naval Base at Guantánamo Bay Naval Base does NOT count.

For this market to resolve YES, the individual must enter Cuban sovereign territory outside of the U.S.-controlled Guantánamo Bay base.

This market does NOT include:

  • Virtual meetings

  • Announced plans without confirmed travel

  • Layovers without leaving the airport

  • Visits after Trump leaves office

Resolution Source

Resolution will be based on widely reported, credible media confirmation or official U.S. or Cuban government statements confirming physical presence in qualifying Cuban territory.

Market context
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During a White House event with Inter Miami, President Trump made notable remarks about Cuba, saying that once the current focus on Iran is resolved, developments regarding Cuba would be “just a question of time.” He also praised Marco Rubio and suggested Cuba could become a future policy focus. No specific actions or policies were announced, but the comments have drawn attention given ongoing speculation about potential US moves toward the Cuban government.
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