Fog of War stuff. Unfortunately, so much has been going on, that I haven't bookmarked everything I should. Here are some interesting tidbits to consider that may or may not be true. IRAN: 1. Is Mojtaba Khamenei really in charge now? He was the chosen successor to his father, and the Assembly of Experts was meeting to elect him Supreme Leader, thereby destroying the quorum required to make his selection legal. Supposedly, the surviving members met by phone the next day, and under IRG pressure, elected him. But rumors were that many clerics didn't like being strong-armed by the IRG, and they questioned whether he had the clerical credentials to be Supreme Leader. And there are constitutional questions about whether enough members of the Assembly of Experts remain to make the election valid. AFAIK, Western and Middle Eastern media seem to be hedging their bets and are wording it as Mojtaba Khamenei is "set to be chosen as Supreme Leader." Of course, the Israelis took out the offices Iranian TV network in Tehran, so if he were officially elected, the Assembly may have difficulty getting the announcement out. 2. The entire IRG senior command seems to have been taken out (according to Israeli sources). Regional missile commands seem to be functioning independently, which may be the reason we've seen missiles and drones being launched at every surrounding country except Afghanistan, forcing Gulf States, which would have preferred to stay on the sidelines, to react to the attacks. 3. But missile and drone attacks have been falling day by day. Quoting the X post below, "Clear downward trend: Peak saturation early (Day 1-2), then sharp drop as U.S. | Israeli strikes destroy missiles, TELs, storage depots, other launch infrastructure and crews." https://x.com/UKikaski/status/2029300058017972422/photo/1 And there is some question about whether they have many more stockpiled, having sold the majority of their stock to Putin. 4. Why hasn't Trump pushed for Reza Pahlavi's return? He has a sizeable network of followers in Iran, and he's posted a sample constitution and reconstruction plan for Iran. Pahlavi would become a constitutional monarch and lead the transitional government under his plan. Does Pahlavi not have enough resources to bribe Trump to support him? And Trump claimed their preferred successor (unnamed) was killed in the attacks. Hmmm. CHINA: 5. Western media and analysts haven't really absorbed the fact that Xi's removal of two of the three top leaders of the PLA had functionally decapitated the PLA military command. Generals Zhang Youxia & Liu Zhenli were removed (arrested? killed?) back in January. This only leaves a political apparatchik appointed by Xi at the top level of the PLA. Xi also purged their immediate subordinates, and State Media said that regional military leaders were instructed to remain on base and attend political training classes. This didn't happen, and various military commands announced maneuvers (with lots of videos being posted on X and other social media of troops marching in formation). Things have quieted down, but... 6. ...but the Political Bureau of the CPC hasn't endorsed Xi's autogolpe (top-down coup). They declined to officially remove Zhang Youxia & Liu Zhenli from their leadership roles at a Politburo meeting at the beginning of February and a second meeting last week. Under the operating framework of the CPC removal of disgraced officials from their positions is necessary before there can be formal trials. Zhang Youxia & Liu Zhenli are suspected to be dead. But there should be an announcement of support for Xi, and that hasn't happened. 7. Rumor is that the Xi faction has pissed off the Old Guard, plus a group of what they call the Reformers. Xi had already purged a bunch of Reformers from the PLA. Although Zhang Youxia & Liu Zhenli got their promotions from Xi, the Old Guard had come to regard them as their own. And notably, Zhang had been cautioning Xi that the PLA wasn't prepared to retake Taiwan. 8. And at last week's meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC, they struck from the rolls a bunch of PLA regional command officers in the Southeast Region who were perceived as Xi supporters, and would have been the ones coordinating any invasion of Taiwan. 9. Around the same time, state media let it be known that Xi would be OK with the Taiwan status quo if the US didn't sell them advanced military systems. Also, Xi was supposed to host Trump in Beijing for a summit at the end of this month. He invited Trump soon after the initial meeting of the Political Bureau failed to endorse his autogolpe of generals Zhang & Liu, probably to boost his perception as a leader with capable international chops. Chinese and US representatives were supposed to meet in one of the Gulf States to work out the arrangements for Trump's State visit, but the Iran strikes and instability in the Gulf region have thrown those plans out the window. It will be interesting to see whether Xi continues to extend the invitation, because it could be perceived by Chinese hardliners as kowtowing to Trump after the Iran fiasco. And if he cancels, the Chinese perception is that American hardliners will perceive it as weakness on Xi's part. This is a no-win situation for Xi. 10. Reportedly, the Chinese were taken off guard by the massive strike on Iran. Their conventional wisdom was that the US would at most try for the nuclear processing center again. Planners weren't prepared for the US moves. Now they have to deal with the fact that Iran's oil isn't flowing to China; it could (will?) disrupt their economy. And the Iran fiasco has proved that Chinese weapons systems, which they sold to Iran, can't stand up to US weapons. The old guard & the reformers are very concerned. And Xi may not make it to the 21st Party Congress in 2027. Even is Xi wins his political battles, he won't be able to move against Taiwan in the foreseeable future. RUSSIA/UKRAINE: 11. Russia has lost a major source of drones with Iran being taken offline. Under Ukrainian bombardments petroleum infrastructure in Western Russia, Russia's oil revenues have declined precipitously. Rumor (repeat, rumor!) has it that Putin is considering turning people's bank accounts into war bonds, and that he's considering universal conscription. Hardliners are calling Ukraine a distraction and urging him to go after the Baltics. Especially since they see the US is focused on Iran. It would take Putin months to call up 1 to 2 million more soldiers, and there are questions about whether they have enough weapons left in their stockpiles to arm them. 12. And Secretary of War Hegseth has reached out to Ukraine to assist with US drone defenses in the US Gulf (because our traditional missile defense systems don't seem to be working very well against Iranian drones). Zelenskyy responded favorably to the request, but he made it "clear Ukraine would help only on the condition that its own defence was not weakened and that there were diplomatic gains for Kyiv - suggesting, in particular, that Ukraine would be willing to swap its interceptor drones for more US Patriot air defences to protect against Russian ballistic missiles." (according to the BBC). Well, we've been blessed to be living interesting times.

Probably/hopefully very unlikely, but if WW3 would happen pre-singularity I think it could look very similar to now. With the war in the Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, the tensions around Taiwan, and the perceived weakness of the US, this seems like the most dangerous time for the world since the end of the cold war. I'm trying to collect questions here that would best signal moves to increased or decreased risk of WW3. (@Manifold: It would be nice to have a comment section and/or direct messages so that people could suggest good questions.)

Scheduled to resolve in 2030, but will resolve early as soon as one of these conflicts enters the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts Note how Wikipedia classifies conflicts on the page, i.e. if a conflict falls short at the end of the year its relevant fatality count will reset. Otherwise, I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran at the same time, the question would resolve 50/50. Two belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other.