This market tracks PGM 2E production at the facility level.
Facility: Sibanye-Stillwater operations in United States
Basket type: PGM 2E (contains platinum, palladium, rhodium, and other PGMs)
Coverage period: Trailing 12 months (TTM) ending 2026-12-31
Settlement delay: 2 months (observation date = March 1, 2027)
Baseline (2026): 432,000 ozt
Data source: Official company production disclosures and quarterly reports
Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES iff: Latest Delayed (2m) Trailing (12m) result for sibanye_stillwater_east_boulder_pgm_2e_ttm_ozt as of March 1, 2027 is ≥ 432,000 ozt.
If PGM 2E ≥ 432,000, resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
1,000Sibanye is guiding for flat-to-slightly-higher US 2E volumes around 280–300k oz in 2026 after deep restructuring; reaching 432k oz TTM by end‑2026 would require a strategic U-turn and >40–50% production growth in a short window, which is not consistent with current plans or cost-cutting priorities.
Sibanye-Stillwater's Stillwater mine in Montana stands to benefit from multiple tailwinds in the current palladium market. The LPPM exclusion of Russian refineries drove palladium prices up 11% [https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101800575], significantly improving economics for US producers. Additionally, Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers filed a petition seeking antidumping and countervailing duties on Russian palladium imports [https://news.metal.com/vn/newscontent/103457705], positioning the Stillwater mine as the only primary PGM operation in the US with both regulatory protection and higher prices. These factors create strong incentives to maintain or increase 2027 production targets at this strategic domestic asset.