Resolution criteria
The Doomsday Clock is assessed in January of each year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The market resolves YES for a given year if the time to midnight increases from the previous year's setting. Otherwise the year resolves NO. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Background
As of January 27, 2026, the Clock was set to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to midnight since its inception in 1947. The clock has been set backward eight times and forward 19 times in its history. The farthest time from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991, which occurred after the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Each year resolves independently - this is not a "before what year" market where earlier years automatically resolve when a later year resolves YES.
1,000People are also trading
1. You guys are optimists. The base rate is ~10%.
2. The distribution doesn't really make sense, each year resolves independently, it's not a "before what year" market.
@ProjectVictory You're berating people for not trading how you want? Why make a market at all, then? Make a blog post about how doomed we are, instead, perhaps.
& if people are trading counter to your understanding of what you wrote, then it's a good sign that the issue is what you wrote—not the people engaging with you.
@ProjectVictory 2027 is too high, but I think there is a significant chance of the doomsday clock going backward in 2029 or 2030 for three reasons:
1. There will likely be a change of administration in the US
2. The clock will likely have gotten even closer to midnight up to then due primarily to AI x-risk
3. I expect the signing of a global AI treaty to ban the development of superintelligent AI to happen around that time
Either that or we will be dead from AI, at which point I assume it would resolve N/A.
@ChurlishGambit My intention was not to berate anyone, I'm sorry if it came across like that. I was pointing out the historical base rate and clarifying how the market works to perhaps get a better calibrated market as a result.
If there's an issue with what I wrote, please point it out to me, I'd be happy to add clarifications.