In late 2023, Sam Altman got into a conflict with the non-profit board of directors of OpenAI, resulting in his firing, reinstatement, and reconstitution of the board.
Anthropic has a different but similar structure, the "Long-Term Benefit Trust", detailed here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/the-long-term-benefit-trust
Notably, it says that the Trust will be able to appoint a majority of Anthropic board members within 4 years (of September 2023).
There is some discretion in resolution criteria, but some relevant conflicts include:
-Dario or a future CEO is removed from their position by the Board (can include a resignation if signs of duress involved)
-Investors in Anthropic demand changes to the corporate structure, and the structure is changed as a result
-The company fails due to lack of funding because the Trust will not change and future investors refuse to fund it
-Anthropic reorganizes the corporate structure before losing a majority of board seats to the Trust, and the Trust no longer receives voting control
-The company voluntarily closes down due to safety concerns raised by the Trust
Another way of framing the question: will the LTBT have a directly relevant and negative impact on the typical business functioning of Anthropic (disruption of leadership, funding, existence of the company, et al)?
1,000People are also trading
-The company fails due to lack of funding because the Trust will not change and future investors refuse to fund it
This one seems likely on the outside view, given the general failure rate of companies. Although it may be difficult to tease out the counterfactual. I'm reading this bullet point as something like "the company fails due to lack of funding, and if it had a normal corporate structure then it wouldn't have failed." Seems hard to know what would've happened if it had had a different structure.
@MichaelDickens I read it as "evidence seems to suggest that the company failing due to lack of funding was directly caused by its non-normal corporate structure", ie the burden of proof seems to be mostly on the side saying the trust not changing was responsible for the failure.
Happy to trade more at 40% though if you are interested
More coverage of the OpenAI change: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Worth noting that OpenAI is considering changing their structure for investors, which would resolve this as Yes if Anthropic ends up doing the same: https://www.ft.com/content/841f6e58-b1bb-4c8e-bce0-a4c0b46ee2f8