This is a numeric market, how many years starting from now (2023 = 1, 2024=2, and so on), with a log scale.
According to this article, it is expected to be between 10000 and 100000, however the star has been acting strange recently. The fun part is we won't have much warnings.
There is also this market but it is closed. Also I prefer a market not affected by technology expectations.
My other "star market" is affected by technology expectations more than astronomy predictions. I think it won't happen for this one.
Update 2026-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Betelgeuse cannot go supernova anymore (e.g., turned into a black hole before going supernova), the market will resolve at 1 billion years as a cap for "never".
1,000@Elspeth This is arbitrary, but I will cap "never" at 1 billion years. I will resolve at that number if it is really clear that it can't go in supernova anymore, like in your black hole scenario.
