MANIFOLD
If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be?
22
Ṁ125Ṁ798
Dec 31
12%
UFOs (sightings, disclosures)
49%
Microbial life (spectroscopic or mineral signatures of life in the solar system or beyond)
6%
Alien technology (extrasolar objects, piece of space junk found on Earth, ancient alien relics)
6%
SETI (radio signals received from afar)
27%
Completely unspecified (US government confidently asserts aliens exist but provide no further information)

Resolves to an option IF EITHER the Kalshi or Polymarket question on U.S. confirmation of aliens resolves YES in 2026.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

NOTE: neither of these markets requires aliens to actually exist. They just require a cabinet member or federal agency to definitively state that aliens exist.

If both resolve NO, then this resolves to N/A.

If EITHER resolves YES, then this resolves to the closest option among the five provided options. No other categories will be added.

If MULTIPLE types of aliens are confirmed by the U.S. simultaneously, then this resolves equally to those types. I will resolve as soon as Kalshi/Polymarket resolves YES, and will not wait the rest of the year to see if more aliens are "confirmed" by the U.S.

I reserve the right to a PROB resolution in cases where there's serious gray area.

I will not bet in this market.

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Grey, big heads, live in Roswell, mind control people into some stereotype American thing and probe their buts.

@AlanTennant this would probably fall under UFOs (as the closest option)

@bens The crazy thing is that aliens are absolutely guaranteed. But good luck even finding one credible bit of evidence, or even something that didn't originate in some sci-fi show. The universe is just really big, and most of it is not aliens.

@bens If a flying saucer turned up, hovered outside your house and flew off, this is probably the priority order the explain it:

  1. Weird aircraft, maybe a strange shaped ion-craft.

  2. A lighter than air craft, like a balloon.

  3. A rare atmospheric effect, there are dozens of weird ones that only happen very occasionally.

  4. Something further away that looks closer.

  1. A hallucination/dream.

  1. Aliens

Why aren't there options like, "Living breathing anthropic aliens?" "Gray aliens like from science fiction except they are science fact?" "Silicon-based or other unexpected chemically divergent life?" &c.? This could be such a fun market

@ChurlishGambit because they’d be fairly priced at like 1% and they’d overlap with the other categories

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