MANIFOLD
Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
25
Ṁ1kṀ7.8k
2040
4%
chance

In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing. In this case, the mission may become a crewed visit to the Lunar Gateway.

Resolves YES if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is planned to be attempted as part of the mission

Resolves NO if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is not planned to be attempted as part of the mission

Resolves N/A if Artemis III is not flown before 2040

Market context
Space
SpaceX
Rockets
Moon Race
Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing
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Artemis III will no longer land on the Moon; rather Orion will launch on SLS and dock with Starship and/or Blue Moon landers in low-Earth orbit

  1. https://arstechnica.com/staff/2026/02/nasa-shakes-up-its-artemis-program-to-speed-up-lunar-return/

predictedNO

https://spacenews.com/starship-lunar-lander-missions-to-require-nearly-20-launches-nasa-says/

Interesting question! I think Yes, I think they'd rather delay Artemis 3 (even longer) rather than fly without. But chances close to 60% seem right for now.

It's also not like SLS has such an amazing cadence that they'll run out of space by delaying a year.

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