This market estimates Cameco's 2029 realized uranium price.
The market settles on March 31, 2030 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting). At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate Cameco's realized uranium price for 2029 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
Measurement window: January 1, 2029 through December 31, 2029
Resolution:
YES if: 2029 realized uranium price ≥100 USD/lb
NO if: 2029 realized uranium price <100 USD/lb
Data source: LLM estimates the value from Cameco's public filings (quarterly earnings releases, MD&A, annual reports, financial statements). Calculate as total uranium revenue ÷ total uranium sales volume over the measurement period.
1,000Cameco is well-positioned for a high-price uranium cycle, but its long-term contracting strategy (floors and ceilings) means the market probably overestimates how easily its realized 2029 price can get above $100/lb. This is less a bet on “uranium mooning” and more a bet on both an extreme and sustained price spike plus a meaningful reshaping of Cameco’s contract portfolio between now and the late 2020s.