This market resolves YES if Cameco's average realized uranium price over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $100.0 per pound U3O8 by 2030-03-31.
Measurement methodology:
Calculate average realized price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
For 2030-03-31 settlement: measure from 2029-10-02 to 2030-12-31
Realized price = Total uranium revenue (USD) ÷ Total uranium sales volume (lbs)
Convert revenue from CAD to USD using period-average exchange rate
Sum quarterly figures from Cameco segment reporting
YES if:
Verified average realized price in measurement window is ≥$100.0/lb
Calculated from reported revenue and sales volume in quarterly earnings
NO if:
Average realized price remains below $100.0/lb
Only spot price (not realized price) would exceed threshold
Resolution sources (priority order):
Cameco quarterly earnings releases (uranium segment revenue and sales volume)
Cameco MD&A filings (detailed segment reporting)
Bank of Canada for CAD/USD exchange rates (period average)
1,000Market pricing has moved up fast, but given current spot levels and the shift of Cameco’s book toward market‑related contracts, I think traders are still modestly underweighting the odds that Cameco’s realized price average spends a sustained window above $100/lb before 2030. The main downside risk to this view is a significant uranium supply response or policy shift that drives prices back into the $60–80 range for several years, which would keep the 15‑month trailing realized average under the threshold.